After several years of concern about the availability of raw materials, the global coffee market is showing the first signs of improvement. Record harvests in Brazil may increase the global supply and affect the stabilisation of prices, although experts emphasise that the market is still vulnerable to the consequences of climate changes and geopolitical tensions.

Germany and Italy drive European coffee imports

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• Europe accounts for about 28% of global coffee consumption, and the global demand is expected to rise by 1.3% in this season.
• According to the Rabobank’s forecasts, global coffee production may reach a record high of 180 million bags thanks to the larger harvests in Brazil, which should increase supply to the market.
• However, the experts note that the market continues to be vulnerable to extreme weather phenomena, such as El Niño, and geopolitical disturbances which affect the logistics.

A new trend emerges on the coffee market

The Coffee and Tea Market Research Institute emphasises that Europe remains one of the most important coffee markets in the world, accounting for about 28% of global consumption, as indicated by the latest report published by the European Coffee Federation (ECF). At the same time, the demand is still growing: according to the Brazilian National Supply Company (CONAB), it will rise in the current season by 1.3%.

The largest coffee importers in Europe are Germany and Italy. More than a million tonnes of coffee beans reach the European market through the ports in Hamburg and Bremen/ Bremerhaven, and another 606,000 tonnes are imported through the Italian ports in Triest and Genoa.(1)

As indicated by Sylwia Mokrysz, PhD, President of the Coffee and Tea Market Research Institute, after several years dominated by concerns over limited supply from South America and the growing role of robusta, a new trend is emerging on the market.

‘For the last couple of years we have been discussing the threats to stable supplies from South America and the robusta which has been conquering the markets previously dominated by arabica. Meanwhile, the latest Rabobank report, Coffee Outlook Q2 2026, predicts a considerable change resulting from the growing production in Brazil,’ comments Sylwia Mokrysz, PhD, President of the Coffee and Tea Market Research Institute.

‘The highest drop was noted by Colombia’

The Coffee and Tea Market Research Institute also points out that Rabobank’s forecasts assume a considerable increase in production in Brazil, which may correspond to record global production at the level of about 180 million coffee bags and the improved availability of raw materials. The changes can already be seen in the global trade. In April, the export of robusta from Vietnam rose, while the supplies from Africa fell. In turn, the producers from South America noted another month of decline in export, with the greatest regression observed in Colombia.

‘In anticipation of the Brazilian harvest, April marked a 12.1% rise in the export of Vietnamese robusta that supplied global markets with 3.41 million 60-kilogram bags of coffee, as compared to 3.04 million bags in the previous year,’ reports the Coffee and Tea Market Research Institute. At the same time, the total coffee exports from Africa dropped by 22.1% from 1.98 million bags to 1.54 million bags. This decline was largely driven by Ethiopia and Uganda. A similar trend was observed in the April results of South American producers who noted the 18th consecutive month of negative growth In April 2026. The biggest decline was suffered by Colombia with a 13.4% drop, from 0.81 million bags in April 2025 to 0.7 million bags in April 2026.

Against this background, the producers from Central America and the Caribbean make a striking exception. The export of coffee from this region rose by 3.3% (from 1.82 million bags in April 2025 to 1.88 million bags in April 2026), and the growth is mostly driven by Honduras (2).

‘That’s what reports and analyses show us, but we can’t forget that the coffee market is and will be sensitive to supply shocks related to weather, particularly in Brazil, and to geopolitical risks that might affect the logistics costs,’ sums up Sylwia Mokrysz, PhD.

Experts from the Coffee and Tea Market Research Institute say that this year the Global Meteorological Organization estimates the probability of the occurrence of the El Niño phenomenon (with the continued above-average high temperatures of water in the Pacific’s equatorial zone) at 80%, which may correspond to droughts, heat waves and precipitation disturbances in the key coffee cultivation regions.

[1] Daniel Woods, Europe remains world’s largest coffee market, https://www.gcrmag.com/europe-remains-worlds-largest-coffee-market/, retrieved: 7 July 2026.

[1] Coffee Market Report, https://ico.org/resources/coffee-market-report-statistics-section/, retrieved: 7 July 2026.