COFFEE MARKET

According to the latest report published by the European Coffee Federation (ECF), our continent accounts for about 28% of global coffee consumption. As indicated by the latest research conducted by the Brazilian National Supply Company (Companhia Nacional de Abastecimento, CONAB), the global demand for coffee is expected to rise in this season by 1.3 per cent.

The biggest importers of beans are Germany and Italy. More than 1 million tonnes of beans reach European markets through the ports in Hamburg and Bremen/ Bremerhaven, while Triest and Genoa account approximately for another 606,000 t [1].

‘When analysing the coffee market, it is worth noting that the trend has changed. For the last couple of years we have been discussing the threats to stable supplies from South America and the robusta which has been conquering the markets previously dominated by arabica. Meanwhile, the latest Rabobank report, Coffee Outlook Q2 2026, predicts a considerable change resulting from the growing production in Brazil,’ comments Sylwia Mokrysz, PhD, President of the Coffee and Tea Market Research Institute.

Rabobank expects that the increased harvest in Brazil will greatly contribute to a rise in global coffee production that will reach a record high of approximately 180 million bags, resulting in a surge in global coffee supplies. These expectations are already reflected in coffee prices listed in the monthly Coffee Market Reports (CMR) published by the International Coffee Organization (ICO).

In anticipation of the Brazilian harvest, April marked a 12.1% rise in the export of Vietnamese robusta that supplied global markets with 3.41 million 60-kilogram bags of coffee, as compared to 3.04 million bags in the previous year. At the same time, total coffee exports from Africa dropped by 22.1% from 1.98 million bags to 1.54 million bags. This decline was largely driven by Ethiopia and Uganda. A similar trend was observed in the April results of South American producers who noted  the 18th consecutive month of negative growth in April 2026. The biggest decline was experienced by Colombia with a 13.4% drop from 0.81 million bags in April 2025 to 0.7 million bags in April 2026.

It is worth noting the coffee from the regions of the Caribbean, Mexico and Central America, where the exports rose by 3.3% from 1.82 million bags in April 2025 to 1.88 million bags in April 2026. It was the fifth consecutive month of growth supported mostly with the beans from Honduras.

‘That’s what reports and analyses show us, but we can’t forget that the coffee market is and will be sensitive to supply shocks related to weather, particularly in Brazil, and to geopolitical risks that might affect the logistics costs,’ sums up Sylwia Mokrysz, PhD.

The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) estimates the probability of this year’s occurrence of the El Niño phenomenon which involves the continued above-average high temperatures of water in the Pacific’s equatorial zone at a staggering 80%. El Niño increases the risk of droughts, heat waves and precipitation disturbances in many important agricultural regions. Coffee is among the crops under threat.

Sponsored publication

[1] Daniel Woods, Europe remains world’s largest coffee market, https://www.gcrmag.com/europe-remains-worlds-largest-coffee-market/, retrieved: 7 July 2026.