COFFEE MARKET

Europe continues to hold the position of the largest coffee market in the world, accounting for about 28% of global consumption. At the same time, forecasts indicate a growth in global demand and record production driven mostly by increased harvests in Brazil. Despite this, the market is still vulnerable to weather changes, geopolitical tensions and logistics disturbances.

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According to the latest report published by the European Coffee Federation (ECF), Europe accounts for about 28% of global coffee consumption. Therefore, the continent remains the largest market for this beverage in this world.

At the same time, the latest research conducted by the Brazilian National Supply Company (Companhia Nacional de Abastecimento, CONAB) indicates that the global demand for coffee may rise in this season by 1.3 per cent.

The biggest European importers of beans are Germany and Italy. More than 1 million tonnes of coffee reach European markets through the ports in Hamburg, Bremen and Bremerhaven. Approximately 606,000 tonnes are imported through the Italian ports in Triest and Genoa.

Rising production in Brazil may change the market

The latest forecasts indicate a change in the previous trends on the global coffee market. In recent years, the discussion has focused mostly on the risk of supply disruptions from South America and the rising position of robusta which has been conquering segments previously dominated by arabica.

‘When analysing the coffee market, it is worth noting that the trend has changed. For the last couple of years we have been discussing the threats to stable supplies from South America and the robusta which has been conquering the markets previously dominated by arabica. Meanwhile, the latest Rabobank report, Coffee Outlook Q2 2026, predicts a considerable change resulting from the growing production in Brazil,’ comments Sylwia Mokrysz, PhD, President of the Coffee and Tea Market Research Institute.

Rabobank expects that the increased harvest in Brazil will greatly contribute to a rise in global coffee production. It may reach about 180 million bags, which would be the highest level in history and would result in a surge in global supplies.

The expectations of greater supply are already reflected in coffee prices listed in the monthly Coffee Market Reports published by the International Coffee Organization (ICO).

Vietnam increases the export of robusta

In anticipation of the Brazilian harvest, April marked a 12.1% rise in the export of Vietnamese robusta. The global markets were supplied with 3.41 million 60-kilogram bags of coffee, as compared to 3.04 million bags in the previous year.

At the same time, total coffee exports from Africa dropped by 22.1% from 1.98 million to 1.54 million bags. This decline was largely attributed to Ethiopia and Uganda.

The negative results were also noted by producers from South America. In this region April 2026 was the 18th consecutive month with a negative export dynamic. The biggest decline was experienced by Colombia with a 13.4% drop, from 0.81 million bags in April 2025 to 0.7 million bags in April 2026.

Growing export from Central America and the Caribbean

A different situation dominated the regions of the Caribbean, Mexico and Central America. The coffee export from these areas rose by 3.3%, from 1.82 million bags in April 2025 to 1.88 million bags in the following year.

It was the fifth consecutive month of growth which was supported mainly by the increased supplies of beans from Honduras.

Weather and geopolitics still a major risk

Despite the forecasts on record production, the global coffee market continues to be vulnerable to dramatic changes in supply, particularly in relation to weather conditions in Brazil. What is also important is the geopolitical tensions that may affect transport and logistics costs.

‘That’s what reports and analyses show us, but we can’t forget that the coffee market is and will be sensitive to supply shocks related to weather, particularly in Brazil, and to geopolitical risks that might affect the logistics costs,’ sums up Sylwia Mokrysz, PhD.

The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) estimates the probability of this year’s occurrence of the El Niño phenomenon at 80%. It involves the continued above-average high water temperatures in the Pacific Ocean’s equatorial zone.

El Niño increases the risk of droughts, heat waves and precipitation disturbances in many key agricultural regions. Coffee is among the crops most threatened by its effects.