‘The year 2026 will mark a period of transition for the tea market, shifting from a mass-market product to one that is chosen consciously. The key challenge is no longer just volume, but also maintaining consumption frequency in the face of growing price pressure and changing consumer beverage habits, says Sylwia Mokrysz, President of the Coffee and Tea Market Research Institute.

• In 2026, the tea market is expected to transition from a mass-market category to one of conscious choice, with the key being to maintain consumption frequency despite price pressure.
• Poles spend over PLN 140 million a month on tea, most often choosing black and fruit teas. The TOP 5 also includes Earl Grey and green teas.
• Matcha is growing in popularity in Poland and Europe. However, high prices and limited supply from Japan are encouraging diversification, including a growing interest in matcha from China.

Every month, Poles spend over PLN 140 million on tea. We most often buy black and fruit teas, and herbal products also rank quite well. Earl Grey and green teas round off the top five in terms of popularity, and consequently, sales volumes.

‘Stability is the hallmark of the entire tea market. Despite various supply chain disruptions, tariff wars, rising labour costs and climate change, it is behaving very predictably. It has not been affected by the pandemic or passing fads for various beverages. In fact, sales and consumption of matcha have been growing steadily for several years, but it is still a type of tea, so that’s good news,’ says Sylwia Mokrysz, President of the Coffee and Tea Market Research Institute.

The article ‘Innovations on the Tea Market in the Face of the Observed Megatrends in Consumption’, published in the industry magazine ‘Coffee and Tea Marketing Journal’ in 2024, points out that the tea market is one of the largest markets in the global economy, and tea is the second most frequently consumed beverage after water. According to the analysis of the data collected by the authors, in order to meet the needs and preferences of consumers determined by these megatrends, tea producers and sellers will have to introduce to the market a number of innovations regarding both the core product and other elements of its structure.

The tea market in 2026: from mass consumption to conscious choice?

‘The year 2026 will mark a period of transition for the tea market, shifting from a mass-market product to one that is chosen consciously. The key challenge is no longer just volume, but also maintaining consumption frequency in the face of growing price pressure and changing consumer beverage habits, says Sylwia Mokrysz. It is important for tea to play a functional role in consumers’ daily lives, anchored in the rhythm of the day. It is also important to combine price affordability with a sense of quality and meaningful choice. The goal is to create a market in which tea is a mainstream consumer choice rather than a substitute, says Sylwia Mokrysz.

Matcha – from niche to premium mainstream

The matcha market in Poland and Europe is still in a phase of dynamic growth. Matcha is increasingly being used not only as a base for beverages, but also in gastronomy and confectionery, where it is an ingredient in desserts, baked goods and modern menu offerings. At the same time, rising prices and a limited supply of raw materials from Japan are contributing to the diversification of matcha sources. In this context, Chinese matcha, whose quality is steadily improving, is becoming increasingly popular in both the consumer and catering sectors. Consequently, matcha is gradually transitioning from a narrow niche to the premium mainstream category, becoming more accessible, while also being perceived as a high-quality addition to everyday offerings.

China is the world’s largest tea producer. What are the forecasts until 2030?

According to the available data, China will remain the largest tea producer. India ranks second, producing 1.33 million tonnes, while Kenya ranks third with 0.54 million tonnes. Other significant tea producers include Sri Lanka, Turkey, Indonesia, Vietnam, Japan, Iran and Argentina. Forecasts suggest that black tea production will grow by an average of 2.1% per year between 2025 and 2030, whereas green tea production is expected to increase by as much as 6.3%. This huge, rapidly growing market encompasses not only hot beverages, but also iced teas and ready-to-drink tea beverages.

Polish consumers drink more dried tea per capita than, for example, Germans, Czechs, French, Spaniards and Italians.

What does the Coffee and Tea Market Research Institute do?

The Coffee and Tea Market Research Institute was established in 2022. Its founders include Professor Grzegorz Maciejewski, PhD (University of Economics in Katowice), Professor Łukasz Wróblewski, PhD (University of Economics in Katowice), and Dr Sylwia Mokrysz (Mokate Group). Professor Magdalena Sobocińska, PhD, a member of the board of the Polish Scientific Marketing Association, is the Chairwoman of the Programme Council of the ‘Coffee and Tea Marketing Journal’, a magazine published by the Institute. The Institute operates internationally.