Global demand for coffee is expected to rise by 1.3% in this season. Europe remains the largest market for this beverage, accounting for as much as 28% of the global coffee consumption.

The European Coffee Federation has just published its latest report on the coffee market. The report cites a study carried out by the Brazilian National Supply Company (Companhia Nacional de Abastecimento, CONAB) which indicates that the global demand for coffee is expected to rise by 1.3% in this season.

The largest importers of coffee beans are Germany and Italy. More than one million tonnes of beans reach European markets through the ports in Hamburg and Bremen/Bremerhaven, while approx. 606,000 tonnes more arrive via Trieste and Genoa.

Coffee production is rising in Brazil

‘When analysing the coffee market, it is worth noting that the trend has changed. For the last couple of years we have been discussing the threats to stable supplies from South America and the robusta which has been conquering the markets previously dominated by arabica. Meanwhile, the latest Rabobank report, Coffee Outlook Q2 2026, predicts a considerable change resulting from the growing production in Brazil,’ comments on the market situation Sylwia Mokrysz, PhD, President of the Coffee and Tea Market Research Institute.

Rabobank expects that the increased harvest in Brazil will contribute significantly to a rise in the global coffee production, which is set to reach around 180 million bags. This would be the highest level of production on record, consequently resulting in an increase in global coffee supplies. These expectations are already reflected in coffee prices listed in the monthly Coffee Market Reports (CMRs) published by the International Coffee Organisation (ICO).

In anticipation of the Brazilian harvest, exports of Vietnamese robusta rose by 12.1% in April, with 3.41 million 60-kg bags of coffee reaching the world markets, as compared with 3.04 million bags a year earlier. At the same time, the export of all types of coffee from Africa dropped by 22.1% (from 1.98 million to 1.54 million bags). This decline was largely driven by Ethiopia and Uganda. A similar trend was observed in the April results of South American producers who recorded the 18^th consecutive month of negative growth in April 2026. The biggest decline was experienced by Colombia with a 13.4% drop (from 0.81 million bags in April 2025 to 0.7 million bags in April 2026).

Another month of growth in coffee exports from the Caribbean

It is worth noting the coffee from the regions of the Caribbean, Mexico and Central America, where the export rose by 3.3% (from 1.82 million bags in April 2025 to 1.88 million bags in April 2026). It was the fifth consecutive month of growth supported mostly by the beans from Honduras.

‘That’s what reports and analyses show us, but we can’t forget that the coffee market is and will be sensitive to supply shocks related to weather, particularly in Brazil, and to geopolitical risks that might affect the logistics costs,’ emphasises Sylwia Mokrysz, PhD.

The World Meteorological Organisation (WMO) estimates an 80% probability of the El Niño phenomenon occurring this year, which involves continued above-average water temperatures in the equatorial Pacific. El Niño increases the risk of drought, heat waves and rainfall disturbances in many important agricultural regions. Coffee is also among the crops under threat.

Compiled by Zenon Kubiak

Source: The European Coffee Federation